Online education has been in the news lately. On one end, a number of elite universities (Harvard, Stanford, MIT, Carnegie Mellon and others) started offering free online courses, or make coursework (teachers notes, exercises, curricula, videos) available online. On the other side of the spectrum, an epic battle between University of Virginia's President and the governing board, seems to have centered around progress in online education (or lack thereof).
So what is going on? Our first link is to a N.Y. Times article about Coursera, an online education venture, and the deal it signed with a consortium of top universities. According to the article "In the fall, Coursera will offer 100 or more free massive open online courses, or MOOCs, that are expected to draw millions of students and adult learners globally." MOOCs burst into the news when a Stanford professor offered one such course, which enrolled some 100,000 learners, a few of which actually finished the course. The intention of the course, as I recall, was both to offer an educational opportunity to learners beyond the confines of Stanford, and to conduct research on the best way to teach the masses using a MOOC. A similar experiment is conducted by Carnegie Mellon University, with free language and humanities courses. Other efforts include Khan Academy, University of People, EdX and Udacity. Most of these sites offer no credit, and those that do require a small fee. The article brings up two problems that complicate offering credit to MOOCs participants - cheating and grading.
A N.Y.Times opinion piece, as well as the previous article, bring up another shortcoming of MOOCs - the lack of personal interaction between teacher and student, and among students and their peers. In a way, similar problem exists with open universities, which offer education through guided self learning, for a hefty tuition. The quality of open education, not a good fit for everyone, was found not to be as good as that of regular universities (though whether the reason is the schools or the learners they attract may be an open questions). Finally, a Wharton article discusses the technical, social and business aspects of online education.
So why do I see this trend as the death of the university, instead of an opportunity to reach a larger 'consumer base'? Because universities are not a monolith, and what's good for the elite is not necessary for the run of the mill. Free online learning will not harm the former, but will damage the latter.
1. Elite universities will probably benefit from sharing their courses online. It is an opportunity to optimize teaching, offer the world a glimpse of the institutions, and perhaps recruit the best and brightest of the online learner universe. The financial structure of elite institution depends on endowments (which comes from rich alumni), federal and other grants (through research by professors) - tuition is a small part of the income stream.
2. Lower tier universities, in contrast, have little in the way of research grants and support from rich alumni, and depend on tuition to a larger degree. If a substantial portion of their students choose alternative learning methods, and enrollment dropped, these institution will be hurt. With the cost of education rising at a neck-breaking pace, fewer students can afford such institutions (unlike the rich constituency of elite colleges, which is doing fine if not better than ever).
3. Alternative universities will pick up the slack. Already at least one company, University of the People, is offering online tuition-free programs in business administration and computer science, leading to Associate and Bachelor degrees (there are processing and exam fees, but these are order of magnitude lower that regular university fees).
I can envision a model which uses free educational resources, available through any of the above-mentioned free web sites, to undercut traditional universities. This new university could consist of a few rooms outfitted with a wireless network and a fast internet connection, where a skeleton staff of qualified educators (e.g., college graduates) would moderate distance learning by dozens of students and complement it with class discussions, dispensing and checking homework, and providing testing and grading. The cost could be a fraction of the $15,000-30,000 a year of the average college, the curriculum could follow that of any reputable university in the US or elsewhere. With some effort it would be possible to offer degrees requiring labs as well, such as science and engineering, though the easiest target would be classes such as humanities, accounting, business, law, math and computational sciences - which require little beyond computers and space.
When this happens, as it surely will, there will be little reason to go to any of the numerous second and third tier schools for the most popular programs, thus undermining their financial base and leading to a consolidation in the field of higher education.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Monday, July 16, 2012
Trickle Down Economics
Since first hearing the saying "If you feed the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows" I thought it would be a perfect description of the Republican desire to cut taxes on the rich as a way to help the poor and middle class. The philosophy known as "trickle down economics", or "supply side economics", is a term that must have originated with Frank Lunz or another Republican strategist, though this doublespeak seems a perfect match to George Orwell as well.
Well, turns out that I am not that original - a quick Google search on the quote shows that John Kenneth Galbraith preceeded me by about 30 years ("Mr. David Stockman has said that supply-side economics was merely a cover for the trickle-down approach to economic policy—what an older and less elegant generation called the horse-and-sparrow theory: If you feed the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows." John Kenneth Galbraith, "Recession Economics," New York Review of Books, Volume 29, Number 1 (1982-02-04)).
So, I tried to find other illustrations, less reminiscent of dining on (literal) horseshit, that can equally well point out the surreal nature of trickle down logic (i.e. figurative horseshit). By the way, in bad times people too have been known to pick through supply side economics for undigested corn or beans.
Here are a few short parables:
Jim's Story
Jim works as an IT technician at a medium size company, where he reports to the head of IT. His job is to support sales reps and administrators, who often have problems with their desktop and laptops. He update operating systems and applications, trains new employees in their use, and troubleshoot software and hardware issues. He also maintains some of the servers the company uses for email, web services, printing and web-centric applications.
At the end of the year everyone was very satisfied with Jim's performance, which is above average, and the fact that even though the company added computers and employees, response time has improved. Personnel informed Jim that due to his excellent performance, his manager, Roger, will get the maximum raise for the year, 5%. Jim's salary would stay the same. Due to the trickle down effect, he would be better off.
Sarah's Story
Sarah is eight, and has a bigger sister (12) and a younger brother (6). Their parents are both professionals, and the family is well off. Sarah grows rapidly, and needs new clothes every few months. Whenever she grows out of the current wardrobe, her parents buy her older sister new things, while she gets her sister's old, mothballed discards. They tell her "we are not cheapskates, and we certainly do not lack for money. It's just that we believe in trickel down economics. When we buy your bigger sister new clothes, you benefit!"
Virginia's Story
Virginia is eight, and lives, in Manhattan, New York City. Both her parents are banking executives. Every Christmas, her older brother, who works on Wall St., gets all the gifts! Virginia's parents said that giving her brother all Christmas gifts benefits her, and the rewards will trickle down to her soon enough, but so far it has not happened. Virginia no longer believe in Santa Claus (or the printed press, and especially not The Sun, for that matter).
Monday, July 9, 2012
Distributed Disaster Response
The problem:
Natural disasters are a part of life. As much as they catch us by surprise, weather events (monsoons, floods, droughts) are regular and predictable, as are the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. One distressing truth about human response is that the larger and further away the calamity, the less people care. "Humans are not designed to care about events that are great in magnitude, take place far away, or involve many people they don't know" (see the previous blog entry for more details).
The root cause:
Individuals' response to disasters depends on the vividness of the suffering, the closeness of the tragedy, and the ability of individual action to affect a solution. Information from large, distant catastrophes trickles in slowly, and the magnitude of suffering demands much more than any one individual can offer. As a consequence, the typical person is turned off.
A possible remedy:
So how can we make people empathize with victims of far-away disasters? We need to find a way to connect with their emotions - to make the suffering vivid, close, and amenable to individual action. We have to provide detailed, timely, vivid, resonant, actionable facts to organizations that manage relief operations - collect donations and channel aid to victims. We must create a process to quickly move bite-size information from the disaster area to the public.
Step 1. Identifying disaster-prone areas
Floods take place near river beds and water bodies, and affect people living in low lying areas. Hurricanes and monsoons arrive from oceans in patterns that repeat themselves with small variations. Earthquakes are associated with fault lines and seismic activity, and their effect are magnified by poor construction practices. The resources available to the population factor in the magnitude of the disaster's impact. A list of vulnerable areas can be created by looking at the historical records, or by consulting experts.
Step 2. Collecting background information
Names and images of individuals, houses and surrounding landscapes create a baseline that can illustrate the impact of a disaster. Talking to locals about their life stories and associating coordinates with names and places will allow to return to the exact point, should it be necessary. The idea is to enable 'before and after' comparisons and make the information vivid.
Step 3. Enabling communication flow
With the goal of allowing images to stream from a disaster area onto the international stage, we have to consider equipment and organization. Cheap digital cameras are widely available, many cell phones already containing cameras, so it should be fairly straightforward to find properly equipped volunteers. Water and sand proof cameras are preferable, especially if they can record sound. To prevent losses, the equipment should be owned by the individual volunteer, not given away.
Up-linking in a disaster area is tricky. Satellite phones and radios are expensive. The alternative is to swap memory cards with the volunteers on the ground, or use the phone network if it functions.
Step 4. Writing up a storm
Some information must be ready in advance to keep up with a disaster. This can be accomplished by a continuous depiction of daily life in a potential disaster zone - what it is like to live in a flood plane, or on a mountainside where landslides follow each heavy rain.
Connecting volunteer writers with area inhabitants can bring their stories to life during normal times and facilitate information flow in time of need.
Step 5. Dissemination
People's stories can be made available to NGO's such as Oxfam, which specialize is disaster relief and appeals for aid. A second option is to contribute content to TV networks, print media, newswires and news sites. The point is that our role is to improve information flow, not provide disaster relief.
Wrapping up
So here is the 5-step process to change disaster response for the better. Identify the area that will need relief. Connect writers with local volunteers that can provide information from the field. Enable communication flow. Write up the stories for distribution, and provide them to disaster relief NGO's and the media. Now all that we need is the organization...
Natural disasters are a part of life. As much as they catch us by surprise, weather events (monsoons, floods, droughts) are regular and predictable, as are the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. One distressing truth about human response is that the larger and further away the calamity, the less people care. "Humans are not designed to care about events that are great in magnitude, take place far away, or involve many people they don't know" (see the previous blog entry for more details).
The root cause:
Individuals' response to disasters depends on the vividness of the suffering, the closeness of the tragedy, and the ability of individual action to affect a solution. Information from large, distant catastrophes trickles in slowly, and the magnitude of suffering demands much more than any one individual can offer. As a consequence, the typical person is turned off.
A possible remedy:
So how can we make people empathize with victims of far-away disasters? We need to find a way to connect with their emotions - to make the suffering vivid, close, and amenable to individual action. We have to provide detailed, timely, vivid, resonant, actionable facts to organizations that manage relief operations - collect donations and channel aid to victims. We must create a process to quickly move bite-size information from the disaster area to the public.
Step 1. Identifying disaster-prone areas
Floods take place near river beds and water bodies, and affect people living in low lying areas. Hurricanes and monsoons arrive from oceans in patterns that repeat themselves with small variations. Earthquakes are associated with fault lines and seismic activity, and their effect are magnified by poor construction practices. The resources available to the population factor in the magnitude of the disaster's impact. A list of vulnerable areas can be created by looking at the historical records, or by consulting experts.
Step 2. Collecting background information
Names and images of individuals, houses and surrounding landscapes create a baseline that can illustrate the impact of a disaster. Talking to locals about their life stories and associating coordinates with names and places will allow to return to the exact point, should it be necessary. The idea is to enable 'before and after' comparisons and make the information vivid.
Step 3. Enabling communication flow
With the goal of allowing images to stream from a disaster area onto the international stage, we have to consider equipment and organization. Cheap digital cameras are widely available, many cell phones already containing cameras, so it should be fairly straightforward to find properly equipped volunteers. Water and sand proof cameras are preferable, especially if they can record sound. To prevent losses, the equipment should be owned by the individual volunteer, not given away.
Up-linking in a disaster area is tricky. Satellite phones and radios are expensive. The alternative is to swap memory cards with the volunteers on the ground, or use the phone network if it functions.
Step 4. Writing up a storm
Some information must be ready in advance to keep up with a disaster. This can be accomplished by a continuous depiction of daily life in a potential disaster zone - what it is like to live in a flood plane, or on a mountainside where landslides follow each heavy rain.
Connecting volunteer writers with area inhabitants can bring their stories to life during normal times and facilitate information flow in time of need.
Step 5. Dissemination
People's stories can be made available to NGO's such as Oxfam, which specialize is disaster relief and appeals for aid. A second option is to contribute content to TV networks, print media, newswires and news sites. The point is that our role is to improve information flow, not provide disaster relief.
Wrapping up
So here is the 5-step process to change disaster response for the better. Identify the area that will need relief. Connect writers with local volunteers that can provide information from the field. Enable communication flow. Write up the stories for distribution, and provide them to disaster relief NGO's and the media. Now all that we need is the organization...
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