Cardinal Sin

Today, I am committing what I resolved not to do - share personal experiences via a blog. I just can't help it. And on the bright side, it is not as bad as the stabbed toe pictures one of my so-called-friends posted on Facebook, warts and all (not literally, though the black and yellow and red colors were worse).

So here are today's revelations.

1. I saw this young woman on the street, with a large cockatoo on her shoulder. She was eating an energy bar, or a rice crispy/granola bar (or both - it had raisins, nuts and something that looked like crisp rice), and the bird was eating it off her hand, one bite/nibble each. When she was done, she took out a plastic bag with coffee or chocolate flavored milk, and again shared with the bird (though I suspect the bird was pulling at the plastic, rather than sipping the milk). People were stopping and snapping pictures with their phones. I learned the bird was called Bobo (or something that sounds like Bobo).

I asked the girl what was the bird's diet. She looked offended - 'It is not on a diet' she said. I paraphrased - what does it eat? Oh, everything.

Chuck Lorre, I hope you are reading this.

2. Hamas and Israel are exchanging missiles again. I can see the point on the Israeli side - elections are coming, and it would not look proper to let Hamas rain rockets on the citizenry. May not be nice, but at least logical. I am not sure it makes sense to launch interceptor rockets to blow up metal pipes, but who am I to stand in the way of anyone's military industrial complex.

What I can't figure out is Hamas, and the people who supposedly elected them. What is their 5 year plan? Let's build an airport, some government buildings, and improve the roads and hospitals first, then let's launch home made, or Iranian made, rockets and invite the Israelis to blow our infrastructure to smithereens?

I can see some internal-political sense in what Hamas is doing. They are paid by Iran to harass Israel, and the UN will rebuild their blown-up infrastructure. What I can't figure out as much is why the fearless masses do not rise and wipe them out. While their salaried and well-fed paramilitaries are building and lobbing missiles, the residents' houses and services are destroyed.

3. I have been reading Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged ever since the election season started in earnest. It is a long, hard slog - the woman can't write, and the characters make horribly long and convoluted speeches that take ages to get through. Luckily, with the Kindle I can read her one paragraphs (of about 22,000) at a time. I will review her book when I am done, but I felt I have to share this piece of John Galt's speech, whose repudiation took a whole day at the Republican convention.

"When you work in a modern factory, you are paid, not only for your labor, but for all the productive genius which has made that factory possible: for the work of the industrialist who built it, for the work of the investor who saved the money to risk on the untried and the new, for the work of the engineer who designed the machines of which you are pushing the levers, for the work of the inventor who created the product which you spend your time on making, for the work of the scientist who discovered the laws that went into the making of that product, for the work of the philosopher who taught men how to think..."

Rand is clearly saying that 'you did not build it'. Who knew, Obama channeling Ayn Rand, while her alleged disciples railing against her. I KNEW these Republicans did not read her book before adopting it as their philosophy!

OK, that's it. Enjoy.

8 Hours in Madrid

The New York Times travel section has their famous 36 hours in ..., where they give readers a possible itinerary of culture, eating, drinking, partying, etc. in a given city. Since I can't compete with the NY Times, I went with 8 hours, the time someone might have in Madrid between flights.

12 Noon. Find the left luggage (consigna) at your terminal. If you are coming from an international destination, it is most likely terminal 4, but there are similar places in terminal 1 and maybe 2. Deposit all your stuff in the large cabinets (5 Euros for 24 hours). Take your computer with you, though.

12:30 PM. Find your way to the rail and bus terminal. Take either the Metro bus or train (renfe) to Madrid, Atocha Station.

13:45 PM. Step outside, go the the McDonald's across the station, order a cafe bombón (espresso shot served over sweetened condensed milk) and a macaron, or whatever other drink and pastry that tempts you, and while you are sipping use the free wireless service to call your significant others, check the news or mail.

1:30 PM Proceed to cross the street parallel the train station and go to El Brillante (next to Starbucks). Sit at the bar, order their famous Bocadillo de Calamares, and enjoy it with a Spanish beer available on tap.

2:00 PM Return in the direction of McDonald's, and continue towards El Prado museum. You actually have to cross the boulevard towards the green (grass and trees) side. Do it sooner rather than later. Enjoy the magnificent collection. As the ushers what to watch first (1st floor a collection of large scale paintings), as there is enough famous art to last you a week of walking. At 6 PM entrance is free, and you'll notice the crowd pouring in. This may be a time to sit down and enjoy some people watching.

7:00 Visit the Prado cafe for dinner or bocas.

8:00 Catch the train/Metro bus back. Your next destination awaits.

Note: if the classics are not your flavor, visit the Real Madrid football museum, in their stadium. Just don't ask me for direction...

Todd Akin and the Will of God

Todd Akin's comment that pregnancies following rape (and for that matter incest, though Todd did not bring that one up) are the will of god (read more here) reminds me of a story by Nobel Prize winner, S. Agnon I am quoting from memory, a pretty old memory at that, so forgive any inaccuracies.

A cart reached a fork in the road. The driver and passenger were not sure which one to take (after all, it was in Poland in the winter, and there were no signs). The driver thought a moment and said: if I head left, this would be the will of god, and he will guide us safely to our destination. On the other hand, if I bear right, this too would be the will of god, who will guide us safely to our destination.

From then on, the decision was left to the horses.

In other words, no matter what happens, if you believe in god, it is his will.

So if the rapist went on to kill the poor woman, so she will not get pregnant, this would also be the will of god. And presumably, Todd would be OK with that, as he would be if the woman took a knife, went Lorena Bobbitt on the guy, and he bled to death.

Would Mr. Akin be fine with someone taking up an automatic rifle and going on a killing spree? After all, those deaths, too, are the will of god.

I think Mr. Akin should drop the will of god from the equation. And while at it, he should re-read Atlas Shrugged and in particular John Galt's speech. He probably won't learn anything, but it would be a worthy punishment.

While we are dispensing advice to creepy politicians, Willard Mitt Romney, who named his son Taggart, should also read Atlas Shrugged, and wonder how Ayn Rand's ideas fit his religion activities.

Epilogue/Correction

I may have conflated Akin and Mourdock. With all the tea party, coffee party, and other crank candidates, it is hard to keep up. After a while, the differences between Akin and Mourdock, Mourdock and Murdoch, Murdoch and Mordor, Mordor and Murder all become one big blur, into a dull gray cloud of miasma.

So freaking easy - amazing! Using a serial on a USB laptop

For once, a technical blog... Not exactly a writing exercise, just an experience I had to share.

Background

I like to hang out with a GPS device when I travel. It is a nice way to capture the coordinates of places I wish to visit again, or to share through my web site.

I own two low-end hand held GPS devices made by Garmin - the eTrex, which uses a serial connector, and the eTrex HC, which is a more modern model, with a USB connector, a color screen and some other (very small and faint) bells and whistles. eTrex, with its monochrome screen is still sold, but the more advanced HC has been supplanted.

Both handhelds use high sensitivity chip, which makes them well suited for use in the rain, in forests, or around high rise buildings. The main difference (other than the connector) is that the serial eTrex, with its limited waypoint naming (six uppercase names, no comments) is actually more user friendly. Its limited capacity forces the user to download the data, erase memory and start anew. In contrast, the HC tempts you to keep the data inside, since you are much more invested in it (you can use upper and lower case names, you can add long comments, you can display multiple tracks in different colors and so on). The end result of the convenience is that clutter (old points, tracks and routes) tend to stick around, and soon enough it is tough to process the data, offload it to the computer, etc. So in a way, this is a curse in disguise - like the DVR loaded with shows so old you can't remember what they are.

But I digress.

The Point

So, as you can imagine, I prefer to use the serial GPS for my data collection. This is fine and good while I am home, but on the road, finding a laptop with a serial connection is not that easy. So I have been taking the USB GPS for longer trips. I use a software program called GPSMan to download and process the data, and Linux as my OS.

But recently I decided to try something new. I took the serial eTrex, with its serial cable, and added the Keyspan Serial to USB connector (I also took the USB GPS just in case). I figured that it would be a nice challenge to try and use the serial GPS with a USB laptop, something to do when it is too rainy to go out (which is quite common in Central America and the tropics).

I collected my data, and looked for the cables. I connected the Keyspan to my USB port, and as a simple user (not even root) typed the following at the prompt:


modprobe keyspan (this loads the module needed to run the Keyspan)

lsmod |grep span (this command lists the modules, just to make sure it was loades), with the following response:

keyspan                37020  0
usbserial              37173  1 keyspan

I connected the GPS to the serial cable and then to the Keyspan, typed the command in a terminal:

gpsman& (this runs GPSMan in the background and lets me continue using the terminal)

I turned the GPS on, and used GPSMan to connect to it. I did not load any garmin USB drivers, or anything - it was set to connect to a USB device (/dev/ttyUSB0) and use the Garmin protocol (NOT the Garmin USB protocol). 

Without lifting a finger, the device was recognized, and in 30 seconds (probably a lot less), the data was no my computer, ready for processing. 

The only difference from using a desktop with a serial port was that I was not able to turn the GPS off from the computer, something that GPSMan allow me to do when I am directly connected. But that's a small price to pay for using a serial device with a USB-only laptop...

Recap

Want to use a Serial GPS with a USB laptop running (Ubuntu) Linux? Here are the steps:

1. Get the Keyspan serial to USB converter.

2. Connect Keyspan to computer and type modprobe keyspan.

3. Connect GPS to serial port on Keyspan.

4. Type gpamsn &

5. Use GPSMan to d/l or upload data (I only tried download at this point, but it should work both ways)

Petitioning Darrell Issa

Dear Representative Issa,

There were several news reports such as this headline "Darrell Issa May Hold Congressional Hearings On Last Week's Jobs Report" from Business Insider, this one from Fox, and this from the Huffington Post. But to my chagrin, news quickly followed that you are NOT going to start the investigation, both denials from left leaning publications, Mother Jones and Politico.

I respectfully submit my request to you to open a congressional investigation of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and their recent Jobs Report, and would like to take the opportunity and make the case for such investigation.

First, let me start by saying that I have followed your career with delight, and while there are rumors that you are a little bit crooked, one has to admit that this is a requirement for success in Congress, and at least you did your monkey business BEFORE you entered the chamber, unlike most of your peers whose corruption starts when they are elected. One also has to admire the fact that of all the politicians persecuting Clinton for oral sex in office, you are the last one standing. But I digress.

I honestly believe that investigating the BLS is a good idea, is the right thing for the American people, and would be supported by both Conservatives, Independents and Progressives. Here is why:

1. There is too much drama in politics at the moment. Your investigation is likely to calm things down. A bunch of statisticians testifying about their methodology, and arguing why their variance values are so high would clearly accomplish the task.

2. Educational value - unlike investigating Clinton for getting a Lewinsky, whose report was unsuitable for children under 18, and challenged parents to explain sexual acts to their children, the future report of your committee would be highly educational, and would increase the math literacy of the average American. For example, terms such as "labor participation rate", "Employment-population ratio", "marginally attached" and "discouraged workers" can be an excellent start to discussion of the value of college education.

3. Contribution to the economy - your hearings and further investigations would grow the local and national economy. All the lawyers, legal secretaries, filers, detectives, public relation firms and many others required to conduct such hearing and in-depth investigation would contribute millions of dollars into our flagging economy. Finally, something useful would come out of this useless Congress.

4. Entertainment - what can be more insightful to the public than to watch Allen West and Jack Welch, live on stage? You could not find better entertainment in a circus or a zoo!

So please reconsider and have the hearing. For the children!

Carpe Diem - Seize the Fish

By now, we have all heard how Mr. Romney won the first presidential debate in Denver. If you are one of the lucky seven that have read my previous post (you know who you are, even if I don't), you also got my immediate impressions of the debate. Here is a more measured, contemplation of issues stemming from the events.

The debate itself was a strange event. One side (Obama) looked like they brought a knife to a gunfight. Their performance can best be described by the title (and lyrics) of a Mariah Carey song, Vanishing. The other side (Romney) seized the day by a performance worthy of a magician, or a shape shifter. All in all, I could not decide whether this debate was partly taken from a Monty Python skit, a Kafka novel, or a fantasy novel I have yet to read. So it was at least entertaining.

Which brings me to the point I wanted to ruminate about. Personally, I have nothing about people changing their views. Someone (John Lennon?) once said that if you hold the same opinions at 50 that you did at 20, you have wasted 30 years of your life. People acquire experience, change perspective, and move around the socio-political map. That's understandable.

When it comes to a political figure it can be confusing. I am not against flip-flopping and changing positions, but I'd like to know what I am buying with my vote (or at least what a rich guy is selecting for me with his money and purchased votes). And in the case of Romney, I have really no fucking idea which one of his cast of characters would show up. Pinning down Romney is like trying to seize a live fish (carpe carp, get the pun?) - slippery, squirmy, scaly and fishy.

Suppose Romney ended up POTUS. Would he be the ruthless corporate raider, dismembering businesses, shipping jobs abroad and raiding employee pensions, or the compassionate conservative that gave Massachusetts residents healthcare and just loves ordinary Americans, even teachers? Would he be Bush on Steroids, looking for WMD in Iran and putting his last penny into starting wars with China, Iran, Syria, etc. or will he cut the military and outsource world policing to the Indians and Chinese, who can still afford it?

Here are some things I am pretty sure we'll see from President Romney.

1. Health care - minor changes, if any. Why? First, because the insurance giants have been absent from the elections, and their stock has been free of gyrations, suggesting they are not concerned about any changes to the health laws, and neither are investors. Second, because this will reignite the healthcare debate and be a waste of energy. And third, because POTUS Romney knows that the only better alternative is government take over, aka single payer. After all, Obamacare plan is not that far Romneycare.

2. Financial regulations - status quo will prevail. Changes to any law are a risk and, especially when done by a Wall Street insider like Romney, open up accusations of corruption, conflict of interest, and blame for (future) economic failures. Romney is also well aware that without regulations, reckless and corrupt practices may bring down the banking system again, and in the present environment, he won't be able to save it.

3. Iran - with all the tough words, a war with Iran will be expensive, blow up the global oil supply system and result in world wide recession and political instability. Romney will be slow and careful. He may owe his election to right wing nuts like Sheldon Adelson, but he knows that his political future depends on the rest of the country as well.

4. Taxes - Romney will do what serves his personal interests, give breaks to the super-rich and try to push the burden to the average and poor citizens by raising taxes, cutting services and moving programs to the states. There will be such revulsion that public pressure will eventually moderate his positions, but it will be too little too late.

5. Education - little change. Push to let churches and businesses get public funding will be slowed down in the courts, and prove counter productive, wasteful and of lower quality. Some people near the trough will get money from Uncle Sam for their clergy and share holders, but they will be the minority.

Let's review in 2 years if Romney makes it to the highest office.

Watching the debate

This would be a short post, only describing briefly my impressions of the Presidential debate that took place in Denver an hour or two ago.

1. Obama looked tired. The presidency seemed to weigh on him.

2. Obama's grin looked genuine, Romney's was like the Cheshire Cat's.

3. Romney abused and dominated the moderator, insisting on getting more time to speak, respond out of turn, etc. Some may consider it endearing or masculine. To me Romney appeared like a testosterone laden bully, one of those bosses who make you stay late Friday night to review a two sentence memo, only to show you they can.

4. There were so many numbers, lies, obfuscations and so on that I could not make ends of tails of facts on the matter.

5. Interesting Romney themes include pushing Medicare and Medicaid to the states, giving Federal funds to private and religious schools, and creating 12 zillion jobs (by REALLY concentrating on job creation, which will bring the magic of the free market to rain them from the sky, no doubt).

May God and/or Nature have mercy on us all. We sure need it.

A bad idea

There is a new Mitt Romney article on Washington Post, which shares tidbits about his relationship with money, and makes for an interesting, if frustrating, read. Interesting because it opens a window into the live of the super-rich (those who can write off $77,000 a year of raising show horses as a business expense). Frustrating, because it looks like Romney's ambiguous, contradictory relation with money is about as solid as his policy positions.

But the part I want to focus on is found on the article's third page, between the paragraph informing us that Romney consolidates household garbage into larger bags “because the waste management company in his area charges by the bag.” and the paragraph describing his house renovations ("He’s spent millions updating and expanding the compound on Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire into a family playground of horses and barns, powerboats and water toys."). 

According to the article: (Romney's) five sons are beneficiaries of a family trust valued at more than $100 million — as long as they keep working. “He’s said if you guys ever decide to stop working,” said Josh Romney, “you can guarantee you’ll never see another penny from the family.”

This epitomizes the Republican attitude, or at least the attitude of the people the GOP seems to worship (rich white males of inherited wealth, who pretend to be 'one of the guys' in order to execute the political priorities of the super wealthy - to make sure the rich get richer, the the poor stay under control), and is a combination of stupid and funny.

First, it perpetuates the banking paradigm - give money to those who do not need it, but keep it away from those who do. Loan to people with money (call it good credit, collateral, or whatever you want), and abuse the needy with higher rates for car loans, mortgages, and other financial help. The new Romney generation can take out money from their $100 million trust, as long as they are duly employed. But Mormon forbid, if they stop working, they are on their ass. Or at least have to beg for money.

Second, I can't remember how many books, plays and movies I have read or seen where the hero repeatedly failed in college because he lived off a trust conditioned on his being a university (or medical school) student, or pretending to work for the stipend.

Thus, I am curious to know the answers to these important questions.

• How does one define work? Would Papa Romney deny his kids the opportunity to evade taxes by investing in tropical island tax shelter? As 'normal' employee, whose taxes are handled by employers, they won't be able to do that! Or would working for themselves do?
• Does any job count? Can a Romney be a janitor, burger flipper, or street sweeper, or does he have to be in a position to fire people, like daddy?
• If Romney Jr. is allowed to be self employed, does the business have to turn a profit? Is it okay to loiter around and accrue a loss, while benefiting from the family fortune? Who is to tell which loss is real, and which is fraudulent?
• If a Romney volunteers, does it count as work? Must Romney Jr. volunteer for the Mormons, or is it okay to work for anyone?
• Can a Romney do pro-bono, or charitable work, to enjoy the family trust-fund benefits, or are the Romneys required to charge for work?
• What if an off-spring falls on hard times, perhaps a medical emergency or an accident? Would he still be able to get the benefits, or would he be tossed to the street, with his family, like the victims of Bain Capital?
• Who is the final arbiter of performance? Mitt? Ann? The church elders?

Lots of things to ponder. Though, considering the family shroud of secrecy, I doubt we'll learn the details of this trust fund either. 

Oh well, probably for the best...

Scum, meet the sewage refuse

Isn't is a hoot! After 80 years of discriminating against women, the scumbags of the Augusta National Golf Club finally allowed two females to join. Representing the 0.1% is Darla Moore of South Carolina. And representing African Americans AND professional women is no other than The Mushroom Lady herself, Condoleeza Rice, giving her best Sir Sidney Poitier impression. Yes, that one, who apparently was so criminally negligent of her duties that she allowed 9/11 to slip out of Dubya stream of semi consciousness, and made the case for Iraq, costing $1-3 trillion and somewhere between 50,000-1,000,000 deaths (including both Iraqis, foreign contractors and Americans).

According to the Washington Post, the Bushies are back and playing for team Romney. Which is interesting, though not surprising, considering Romeny's Big Daddy is Sheldon Adelson, the benefactor of King Bibi of Likud fame, who must be chomping at the bit for more Middle East carnage. Romney, who transports the family dog on the car roof, apparently has no problem letting the fleas ride with the family.

And talking of King Bibi, who is now on record of lecturing and reprimanding both the President AND Secretary of State, I think the US should grant him his wish, and let him take care of Iran by himself, without any red lines, threats and inhibitions. As Ronald Reagan once said, 'boys would be boys'. 

But when he is done, let him also take care of Iran's response by himself, too. and let Sheldon Adelson airlift supplies and ammunition to Israel, and hire military contractors to intervene on his behalf. After all, Shelley seems to have plenty of money to throw around, so maybe he should put his money where his mouth is, instead of performing a leveraged buyout of the American Government.

Of course, Adelson knows a good investment when he sees one. By putting in $100,000,000 to buy Romney the presidency, his puppet would then invest over $1,000,000,000,000 of US tax-payer money into a war with Iran. That's a 10,000 fold return on investment, and is a conservative estimate. 

After all, the rich guys with money in the Caymans and Switzerland can use a global oil crisis, followed by a recession that would finish up what the Bush housing bubble started. They can then buy all the remaining property on the cheap. In times of war, cash is king, and who has more of it than Adelson, Romney, and their ilk.

Just a thought.

Rebooting a bus

As someone who likes to test new applications, or try out overlooked old ones, I have had my shares of computer crashes and reboots. From Windows blue screen of death, to the frozen apple of the iPod, I have probably seen them all. Even Linux crashes (imagine that - the desktop is not as stable as the server...).

During several longs spans of time, my computers (running MS products, of course) would crash as soon as I entered the office, like the elevators of The Hitchhiker Guide to the Galaxy.

But until today, I have not seen a bus being rebooted. To be honest, it was not that the whole bus froze - only the electronic payment system - but a commercial service without ticketing is as good as dead.

Here is how it happened. A pretty girl, playing a game on her iPhone while handing the driver a bill and the electronic charge card, confused the driver. He tried charging the card, and failed embarrassingly. Frantic, he started pressing repeatedly the buttons on his card crediting system, but to no avail (or even to the detriment of the software, who knows). Sweating (and swearing in a muted mumble), the driver turned off the engine, waited a few second and turned it on again.

The driver turned off the engine, sprinted to the battery compartment and pulled out the plugs. Minutes later, when he reconnected the battery, lights flickering, he powered the engine, at which point the ticketing system started functioning again.

Not an impressive life event by itself, but how often does one get to witness a bus needing a reboot? To me it is worthy of a blog entrance.

A rose by another name

Roses are an important part of Mitt Romney's essence. His modus operandi is extremely sub rosa - he keeps his money hidden in foreign countries to avoid paying taxes, he wiped out his Massachusetts records when he left the Governor's mansion, and his business records are sealed to avoid embarrassments. And, like many moneyed people, he probably believes his excreta smell of roses.

So I was not completely surprised by this sweet anecdote in his acceptance speech: "Mom and Dad were married 64 years. And if you wondered what their secret was, you could have asked the local florist – because every day Dad gave Mom a rose, which he put on her bedside table. That's how she found out what happened on the day my father died – she went looking for him because that morning, there was no rose."

A touching story, which merits further analysis. 

Cost:

A daily single rose dosage ('rosage') over sixty four years runs to 23,360 roses (not counting birthdays, Valentine's days and other parties and celebrations). That's a lot of roses. At today's prices, this 'rosage' would run between $70,000 - $120,000 (assuming average to top quality roses - after all, one would not go to all this trouble to get cheap roses). We knew, of course, the Romneys were wealthy. At least, unlike Mitt, George Romney earned his money from real engineering, not financial engineering.

Persistence:

Another fascinating aspect is the persistence. The ritual beats Cal Ripken's record by decades. Have George Romney and his wife stayed home throughout their 64-year marriage? Considering George Romney was an auto executive, and a presidential candidate (despite his birth in Mexico, where his parents lived to avoid US anti-polygamy laws), one might guess not every day of his life was spent home. And it is hard to believe his wife never took a trip, visited her parents or siblings, or just spent a night on the town with friends.

In other words, like most GOP convention speeches, there probably is some liberty with the facts here. And not to repeat this behavior, let's be clear that Mitt's grandparents have not practiced polygamy, only chose to live in a polygamist Mormon colony.

Process:

Then there is the procurement and delivery. Did George Romney drive to the florist every daybreak to pick his wife's rose? Did the butler do it? Was the daily flower delivered by the florist?

Where was Mrs. Romney while Mr. Romney was putting the flower on the bedside table? Powdering her nose? Sleeping? Did she ever intercept the rose before it made it to the night table?

Did Mitt really follow his parents around for 64 years, to check on the roses?

The Discovery:

I just can't wrap my head around that part of the story. How likely is it that a missing rose act as the only clue to one's partner death? Did no one check on Mr. Romney when he failed to show up for breakfast or drive to the florist?

How far from a spouse does one have to live for that to happen? In a different bedroom? A separate house? Distant cities? Another planet?

Didn't anyone tell poor Mrs. Romney her husband had died? She had to infer it from the missing rose? What quality of help did the Romneys have around the house?

Face Validity:

I do not know Mitt's parents, but having lived together for over six decades, they must have shared a lot of good, loving times. Still, I doubt is the veracity of the story, which appears taken from the plot of a Hallmark movie. Seems to me that the speech writers fibbed a little. To paraphrase Charles Barkley, Mitt Romney was misquoted.

Then again, this is nothing compared to other speakers, like Marco Rubio, whose parents fled from Cuba to Florida to escape Castro several years before the communists rise to powe.

Selling books - right wing, left wing

The article showed up on the Guardian last week, its bold headline asserting a "Republican landslide in Amazon book vote" with the byline "Conservative authors outselling Democrat titles right across the US according to Amazon sales map". The copycats, tweets and re-tweets (e.g., The Economist) took a few days longer, but finally made it, too.

No doubt, "Amazon Election Heat Map 2012 Presented by Amazon Best Sellers - What are Americans Reading?" is a brilliant marketing gimmicks. It is so fresh and cute, even I am providing Amazon with free advertising, adding at least 4 new readers to their web.

For details and explanation, see The Election Heat Map. The Amazon map breaks down sales of 'Blue' and 'Red' books in each of the 50 states, the color codes each state based on the ratio of sold books in it. Amazon classifies "books as red or blue if they have a political leaning made evident in book promotion material and/or customer classification, such as tags".

Why is it smart? Because it takes a hot topic, and leverages the public interest in the muck slinging of the two parties to promote book sales. And the idea is so novel, that it gets tons of free exposure from leading papers all over the world. So people come to the web site, look at what's hot in their state, or other states, and get exposed to books that can re-enforce their existing opinions, while shelling out their dollars to Amazon.

What's more interesting is to look at the lists themselves. As it happens, I am currently reading Atlas Shrugged (wanted to know what all the fuss is about), The Road to Serfdom (ditto), People's History of the United States (thought these people were from 'we the people' but turns out they are from The People's Republic of ...), so that would make me a pinkish (as in more Republican than Democrat). Then again, I just finished two Orwell books (Road to Wigan Pier and Down and Out in Paris and London - thought these were books about inexpensive travel in Europe).

Other things of note:

• Killing Lincoln is a Republican book (is that the one where Lincoln kills the vampires?)
• The God Delusion is a Democratic book (does that mean God is a Republican, and if so, which God - Buddha, Allah, Jehovah, The Trinity, all of the above? There is enough of them to start a war on Mount Olympus).
• Ed Rendell's book falls under Republican books. Bush's book (Decision Points) is more appealing (or appalling) to Democrats.
• Christopher Hitchens (of God is Not Great and The History of Apple Pie fame) is also a Republican favorite.
• Missing completely are cookbooks (Julia Child, Anissa Helou - red camp, Bobby Flay and Fergus Henderson - blue), the Bible (guess not enough Republicans are buying it?), travel books (red), hunting/fishing/guns (blue).

Life seen through Search: Cooking on the road

Prologue


I can't remember why I searched Google for cooking on the road - I have no trip planned, and besides, I rarely cook on the road. I may buy fresh fruit for snacks, or pastries to go with my coffee, and occasionally, when decent food choices are not readily available, I get milk and cereal for breakfast or dinner. But I generally consider the local grub an essential part of the travel experience, and find cooking on the road a detriment to fully enjoying the trip.

But no matter why I searched, the results turned out very different from I had expected. A clear and vivid example of the socio-economic divide in the United States of America and the chasm between social classes emerged. The same was the case with the corresponding Amazon book search.

Logue

Let's start with Amazon. The search results feature Cooking on the Road with Celebrity Chefs which somehow comes above Cooking on the Road - a book by a cycling enthusiast. Also on the list - Spain, a Culinary Road Trip (Mario Batalli, Gwyneth Paltrow, Mark Bittman and a stunning Spanish actress whose name evades me, drive about in Mercedez Benz sedans, followed by camera crews, and explore Spanish architecture and cuisine - available on DVD) and The Original Road Kill Cookbook. 

In other words, Amazon's audience range from sports fanatics to celebrity chef enthusiasts, from those who scavenge for food, to watchers of famous people dining at posh restaurants.

The Google search is even more varied, with the following entries making it to the top:

• Mark Bittman (again), making a soup from salad bar ingredients at the Sundance Festival, possibly using the coffee pot. Ingenious, delectable, and decidedly upscale. Recipe included, assuming you can find a hotel with a fresh salad bar.
• Michael Ruhlman's equipment list for cooking on the road. You know you are in trouble when you have to lug along the PolyScience Standard Immersion Circulator, but how else would you prepare short ribs, cooked sous vide 48 hours at 140F/60C? I have two things to say about the list - you'd have to be a magician to get it past the TSA (especially those pretty chef knives), and the La Creuset Dutch Oven might tip you over the luggage weight limit. Again, pretty upscale.
• The Rough Guide's article on cooking on the road - this guys left his immersion circulator at home, but did bring a spice bag. Practical suggestions for budget travelers.
  
• THE UNDETECTABLE HOMELESS - one in a series of blog articles about interviews with "(mostly) women who live out of RVs, trailers, trucks, cars..." - with " “camping recipes” that are not only delicious, but cooked in creative ways." Decidedly less upscale.
• Flexible Cooking on the Road: One Recipe Fits All - Go Budget Travel's lord of the dishes, a recipe to rule them all, for the budget traveler: Cajun Jambalaya. Bring your own spice bag. Cheap and practical.
• And finally, a microwave red lentil soup recipe from the Cooking Manager, which may be tough to make (try finding red lentils outside the Middle East), but at least is Glat Kosher.

Again, we see a range of audiences - from the rich and famous, through the middle class, to the broke, to the down and out. Microcosm in a page.

 Epilogue

As was recently pointed out to me, classes have been around for a long time, and the fact that they show up in search results is not all too surprising - it is just a reflection of the normal distribution curve. Still, you don't find this distribution when you search for "Cooking French (British, Indian) Food".

Quickies

I have been busy lately, but do not wish to completely neglect the blogs, so here are a few tidbits...

• The latest Technology podcast from the Guardian interviewed some judges from Young Rewired State, a week long hackathon for British kids. One of the programs that will be developed is animalympics - a cross matching program between the UK Olympic games team and the London Zoo animals. Essentially it answers the questions 'if you were an animal, which would you be?' for each athlete/or animal, using some statistical algorithm correlating data on the participants.
  
  As I was listening, two things came to mind. First, for humanity's sake, let's hope we do not get too many stereotype choices for the weasels, asses, lions and monkeys. Second, wouldn't it be so much better to cross match the current and past Members of Parliament with the London Zoo animals? If nothing else, matching them with animals would be so much easier. We can also try international politicians (George W. Bush the Chimpanzee, Blair the Poodle, anyone.), singers or actors.
  
  
• Poor Shelly does not have enough money and would like to extract some more from Jewish Democrats (according to the Washington Post). Reminds me of the Russian / Chinese saying 'when the crocodile is crying, it means he is hungry'. Shelly deserves a full blog entry (though maybe one should shut up less Shelly will sue individual bloggers to protect his impeccable character). If and when I find the time, I might oblige.
  
  
• Looks like both Democrats and Republicans are engaging in a race to the bottom. There is a saying that one shouldn't mud-wrestle a pig, because sooner or later you realize the pig actually enjoys it. It now seems both pigs are having a good time - and getting money for reality-show style entertainment...

Online education and the slow death of the academic enterprise

Online education has been in the news lately. On one end, a number of elite universities (Harvard, Stanford, MIT, Carnegie Mellon and others) started offering free online courses, or make coursework (teachers notes, exercises, curricula, videos) available online. On the other side of the spectrum, an epic battle between University of Virginia's President and the governing board, seems to have centered around progress in online education (or lack thereof).

So what is going on? Our first link is to a N.Y. Times article about Coursera, an online education venture, and the deal it signed with a consortium of top universities. According to the article "In the fall, Coursera will offer 100 or more free massive open online courses, or MOOCs, that are expected to draw millions of students and adult learners globally." MOOCs burst into the news when a Stanford professor offered one such course, which enrolled some 100,000 learners, a few of which actually finished the course. The intention of the course, as I recall, was both to offer an educational opportunity to learners beyond the confines of Stanford, and to conduct research on the best way to teach the masses using a MOOC. A similar experiment is conducted by Carnegie Mellon University, with free language and humanities courses. Other efforts include Khan Academy, University of People, EdX and Udacity. Most of these sites offer no credit, and those that do require a small fee. The article brings up two problems that complicate offering credit to MOOCs participants - cheating and grading. 


A N.Y.Times opinion piece, as well as the previous article, bring up another shortcoming of MOOCs - the lack of personal interaction between teacher and student, and among students and their peers. In a way, similar problem exists with open universities, which offer education through guided self learning, for a hefty tuition. The quality of open education, not a good fit for everyone, was found not to be as good as that of regular universities (though whether the reason is the schools or the learners they attract may be an open questions). Finally, a Wharton article discusses the technical, social and business aspects of online education.


So why do I see this trend as the death of the university, instead of an opportunity to reach a larger 'consumer base'? Because universities are not a monolith, and what's good for the elite is not necessary for the run of the mill. Free online learning will not harm the former, but will damage the latter.


1. Elite universities will probably benefit from sharing their courses online. It is an opportunity to optimize teaching, offer the world a glimpse of the institutions, and perhaps recruit the best and brightest of the online learner universe. The financial structure of elite institution depends on endowments (which comes from rich alumni), federal and other grants (through research by professors) - tuition is a small part of the income stream.


2. Lower tier universities, in contrast, have little in the way of research grants and support from rich alumni, and depend on tuition to a larger degree. If a substantial portion of their students choose alternative learning methods, and enrollment dropped, these institution will be hurt. With the cost of education rising at a neck-breaking pace, fewer students can afford such institutions (unlike the rich constituency of elite colleges, which is doing fine if not better than ever).


3. Alternative universities will pick up the slack. Already at least one company, University of the People, is offering online tuition-free programs in business administration and computer science, leading to Associate and Bachelor degrees (there are processing and exam fees, but these are order of magnitude lower that regular university fees). 

I can envision a model which uses free educational resources, available through any of the above-mentioned free web sites, to undercut traditional universities. This new university could consist of a few rooms outfitted with a wireless network and a fast internet connection, where a skeleton staff of qualified educators (e.g., college graduates) would moderate distance learning by dozens of students and complement it with class discussions, dispensing and checking homework, and providing testing and grading. The cost could be a fraction of the $15,000-30,000 a year of the average college, the curriculum could follow that of any reputable university in the US or elsewhere. With some effort it would be possible to offer degrees requiring labs as well, such as science and engineering, though the easiest target would be classes such as humanities, accounting, business, law, math and computational sciences - which require little beyond computers and space.

When this happens, as it surely will, there will be little reason to go to any of the numerous second and third tier schools for the most popular programs, thus undermining their financial base and leading to a consolidation in the field of higher education.

Trickle Down Economics

Since first hearing the saying "If you feed the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows" I thought it would be a perfect description of the Republican desire to cut taxes on the rich as a way to help the poor and middle class. The philosophy known as "trickle down economics", or "supply side economics", is a term that must have originated with Frank Lunz or another Republican strategist, though this doublespeak seems a perfect match to George Orwell as well.

Well, turns out that I am not that original - a quick Google search on the quote shows that John Kenneth Galbraith preceeded me by about 30 years ("Mr. David Stockman has said that supply-side economics was merely a cover for the trickle-down approach to economic policy—what an older and less elegant generation called the horse-and-sparrow theory: If you feed the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows." John Kenneth Galbraith, "Recession Economics," New York Review of Books, Volume 29, Number 1 (1982-02-04)).

So, I tried to find other illustrations, less reminiscent of dining on (literal) horseshit, that can equally well point out the surreal nature of trickle down logic (i.e. figurative horseshit). By the way, in bad times people too have been known to pick through supply side economics for undigested corn or beans.

Here are a few short parables:

Jim's Story

Jim works as an IT technician at a medium size company, where he reports to the head of IT. His job is to support sales reps and administrators, who often have problems with their desktop and laptops. He update operating systems and applications, trains new employees in their use, and troubleshoot software and hardware issues. He also maintains some of the servers the company uses for email, web services, printing and web-centric applications.

At the end of the year everyone was very satisfied with Jim's performance, which is above average, and the fact that even though the company added computers and employees, response time has improved. Personnel informed Jim that due to his excellent performance, his manager, Roger, will get the maximum raise for the year, 5%. Jim's salary would stay the same. Due to the trickle down effect, he would be better off.

Sarah's Story

Sarah is eight, and has a bigger sister (12) and a younger brother (6). Their parents are both professionals, and the family is well off. Sarah grows rapidly, and needs new clothes every few months. Whenever she grows out of the current wardrobe, her parents buy her older sister new things, while she gets her sister's old, mothballed discards. They tell her "we are not cheapskates, and we certainly do not lack for money. It's just that we believe in trickel down economics. When we buy your bigger sister new clothes, you benefit!"

Virginia's Story

Virginia is eight, and lives, in Manhattan, New York City. Both her parents are banking executives. Every Christmas, her older brother, who works on Wall St., gets all the gifts! Virginia's parents said that giving her brother all Christmas gifts benefits her, and the rewards will trickle down to her soon enough, but so far it has not happened. Virginia no longer believe in Santa Claus (or the printed press, and especially not The Sun, for that matter).

Distributed Disaster Response

The problem:


Natural disasters are a part of life. As much as they catch us by surprise, weather events (monsoons, floods, droughts) are regular and predictable, as are the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. One distressing truth about human response is that the larger and further away the calamity, the less people care. "Humans are not designed to care about events that are great in magnitude, take place far away, or involve many people they don't know" (see the previous blog entry for more details). 

The root cause:


Individuals' response to disasters depends on the vividness of the suffering, the closeness of the tragedy, and the ability of individual action to affect a solution. Information from large, distant catastrophes trickles in slowly, and the magnitude of suffering demands much more than any one individual can offer. As a consequence, the typical person is turned off.


A possible remedy:

So how can we make people empathize with victims of far-away disasters? We need to find a way to connect with their emotions - to make the suffering vivid, close, and amenable to individual action. We have to provide detailed, timely, vivid, resonant, actionable facts to organizations that manage relief operations - collect donations and channel aid to victims. We must create a process to quickly move bite-size information from the disaster area to the public. 

Step 1. Identifying disaster-prone areas 


Floods take place near river beds and water bodies, and affect people living in low lying areas. Hurricanes and monsoons arrive from oceans in patterns that repeat themselves with small variations. Earthquakes are associated with fault lines and seismic activity, and their effect are magnified by poor construction practices. The resources available to the population factor in the magnitude of the disaster's impact. A list of vulnerable areas can be created by looking at the historical records, or by consulting experts. 


Step 2. Collecting background information


Names and images of individuals, houses and surrounding landscapes create a baseline that can illustrate the impact of a disaster. Talking to locals about their life stories and associating coordinates  with  names and places will allow to return to the exact point, should it be necessary. The idea is to enable 'before and after' comparisons and make the information vivid.



Step 3. Enabling communication flow


With the goal of allowing images to stream from a disaster area onto the international stage, we have to consider equipment and organization. Cheap digital cameras are widely available, many cell phones already containing cameras, so it should be fairly straightforward to find properly equipped volunteers. Water and sand proof cameras are preferable, especially if they can record sound. To prevent losses, the equipment should be owned by the individual volunteer, not given away. 


Up-linking in a disaster area is tricky. Satellite phones and radios are expensive. The alternative is to swap memory cards with the volunteers on the ground, or use the phone network if it functions.

Step 4. Writing up a storm


Some information must be ready in advance to keep up with a disaster. This can be accomplished by a continuous depiction of daily life in a potential disaster zone - what it is like to live in a flood plane, or on a mountainside where landslides follow each heavy rain.


Connecting volunteer writers with area inhabitants can bring their stories to life during normal times and facilitate information flow in time of need.

Step 5. Dissemination


People's stories can be made available to NGO's such as Oxfam, which specialize is disaster relief and appeals for aid. A second option is to contribute content to TV networks, print media, newswires and news sites. The point is that our role is to improve information flow, not provide disaster relief. 


Wrapping up


So here is the 5-step process to change disaster response for the better. Identify the area that will need relief. Connect writers with local volunteers that can provide information from the field. Enable communication flow. Write up the stories for distribution, and provide them to disaster relief NGO's and the media. Now all that we need is the organization...

Endgame in Syria?

It is hard, when reading news items about Syria, to judge what is truth and what is psy-ops. However, it would seem that we are now at the endgame phase. And once again, it seems that Obama's secretive 'lead from behind' is the driving force.

In the last few days we have seen the following news in Western media:

1. Firefights in Damascus, including bombings of TV station(s), assassination of a Hamas operative (probably NOT by Israel, as the guy is too low-level).

2. Continued killing of civilians by Government troops, but with casualty rates of the regime's forces on the same order of magnitude as the civilians. In other words, rebels are appearing to be on equal footing with the Syrian army.

3. Money and weapons arriving to Turkey from Gulf States, making its way to the border, and being distributed to the rebels by US operatives. The weapons include anti-tank and anti-personnel carrier individual weapons (RPG's and such), as well as light arms. The US presence is meant to prevent Jihadi types from obtaining it. The weapons appear to be relatively low-tech, and would not be a threat to civil aviation. They are also readily available in many combat zones, such as Pakistan, Africa, etc.

4. Syria moving tanks to the north. Turkey moving anti-aircraft equipment and tanks to the south. Seems to me that Turkey is planning to prevent the Syrian air force from bombing rebels on either side of the border.

5. High level defections - though still only a few.

6. Large swaths of land lost to rebels.

7. Announcements of free passage to Assad, etc.

So I see the US and Gulf States are moving in to ease Assad out. Militarily they are neutralizing his advantages with armaments, and in the meantime, they are trying to get him to move out voluntarily and have an orderly process of regime change. The goal is to make sure Al Qaeda and similar groups do not get advanced weapons, and also to prevent Syria's disintegration, a civil war, and a regional spillover.


If it works, which to me is pretty darn certain, it will deliver a serious blow to Iran and its regional ambitions. I give Assad 2-3 months, perhaps longer to enable an orderly transition. Let's wait and see.

Exploring and Preventing Irrational Response to Disasters

The Problem and its Causes

Why do people respond so indifferently to major catastrophes, such as the genocide in Rwanda, floods in Asia, or famines in Africa, yet give generously to a neighbor who lost a house to fire, or a coworker downsized from a job?  

This surprising response (or lack of it) to human tragedy is taken up in Dan Ariely's second book, The Upside of Irrationality. Dan Ariely, a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University, is well known for his book Predictably Irrational, which explores the faulty nature of human decision making, a predictably irrational process that is easily (and frequently) exploited by marketers, corporations and politicians. 

Dan's second book draws on his research and personal experience to describe irrational decision making and action taking. It also highlights ways to overcome these irrational tendencies. Chapter 9 ("On Empathy and Emotions: Why We Respond to One Person Who Needs Help but Not to Many") deals with parameters that contribute to a general apathy towards large tragedies, facets that limit our responsiveness to large-scale disasters, compared to smaller misfortunes at home. 


It appears that empathy, which determines how we respond to events, is dominated by emotions, rather than logic, and is affected by the following psychological factors:

• Vividness - how detailed and vivid the picture of suffering is. The more vivid, the more likely we are to empathize and react. In contrast, the vagueness of a long-distance look reduces empathy and response. 
• Closeness - physical proximity or group kinship to victims. We are much more likely to give money to trivial causes nearby, than to a much needier problem far away.
• The 'Drop in the bucket' effect - the inability to single-handedly and completely help the victims of a tragedy. In face of large needs which we can barely affect with individual action, we tend to shut down emotionally. Immense issues, such as providing clean water to people in most developing countries fall victim to this effect.

These factors distort our decision making in peculiar ways - the larger the problem, and the more analytic information is available, in form of data and statistics ("250,000 people are still homeless after the earthquake"), the less we respond with support and compassion. Issues become too abstract for emotions to comprehend. Rational thought and analysis block emotion-driven empathy. To quote Joseph Stalin (Ariely offers many other similarly enlightening quotes), "one man's death is a tragedy, but a million deaths is a statistic". 

Ariely's Proposed Solutions

Ariely, usually the optimist, comes up with a depressing conclusion - "We are not designed to care about events that are great in magnitude, take place far away, or involve many people we don't know", and offers a number of personal behavior modification solutions - ways individuals can modify the way they think about disasters and tragedies. The following are extracts and edited quotes:

"So what can we do as a possible solutions to the statistical victim problem - what hope to solve large scale humanitarian problems?"

• Try to change how we think and approach human problems ... try to think specifically about helping one suffering person.
• Try to counteract the "drop in the bucket" effect by re-framing the magnitude of the crisis in your mind - instead of the abstract problem of massive poverty, try to feed 5 people.
• Find the personal closeness to sufferers of a general problem.
• Come up with rules to guide behavior - create rules that will guide us to take the right course of action, even if it does not arouse our emotions. 

The last one is more relevant to organizations than individuals - for example, the UN can automatically deploy peace-keepers if a given number of people is affected by a violent conflict.

An Alternative Solution

Unfortunately, self improvement is much easier in theory than in practice. Most of us repeatedly fail in our efforts to change. Note, for example, the common fate of New Year's resolutions. 


Ironically, Ariely, in despair, may have stumbled on a possible answer:  "It would be nice ... if the next catastrophe were immediately accompanied by graphic photos of individual suffering ... if such images were available they would incite our emotions and propel us into action. But all too often images of disasters are too slow to appear, as was the case in Rwanda, or they depict a large statistical, rather than identifiable, suffering - think for example about Darfur. And when these emotion-evoking images finally appear on the public stage, action may be too late in coming. Given all our human barriers to solving the significant problems we face, how can we shake off our feeling of despair, helplessness or apathy, in the face of great misery ... So what can we do as a possible solutions to the statistical victim problem - what hope to solve large scale humanitarian problems?"


Today's technologies - digital cameras, cell phones, image sharing sites and social networks - make it possible to globally disseminate images in minutes. Technology can benefit further from some coordination by the community. A disaster response plan to distribute images together with vivid, detailed description of individual cases, has the potential to trigger public support and individual action. All that it takes is a little preparedness. After all, we already have a pretty good idea which areas are amenable to flooding, earthquakes, or famine - all we need to do is be ready when the next one hits - and remember that people care more about a single bleeding victim than about a million abstract sufferers...

The (not so) Great Game in Syria

The Great Game was first coined to describe the rivalry between the British and Russian empires, which played out in Central Asia, but it can just as well refer to any situation where big powers fight a proxy war on someone else's land. And the most recent case is Syria, where Sunnis and Shiites from the Gulf (led by Saudi Arabia and Iran, respectively) fight their proxy war to control Islam.

The Situation 

Syria is ruled by a Shiite Alawite minority, led by the Assad family. The country's political and military elite is made up of mostly this sect. Sunni minority started peaceful demonstrations about a year ago, and has been repressed violently by the regime. The situation evolved slowly into an armed struggle between the minority, supported by Gulf states and others, and the army, whose main weapon is  massacres of civilians.

The Players

• The rebels - a coalition of many factions and fractions of Syrian minorities, including some extremists and religions fanatics. 
• Iran - Iran is the benefactor of US mistakes under Bush, which spent upward of a trillion dollars to dispose of Sadam Hussein and bring Iraq under Shiite rule and Iranian influence. The Iranian took advantage of these errors to become a regional superpower. Syria is Iran's gate to the Mediterranean, its conduit of arm sales and smuggling to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and its influence in Lebanon. Iran, in case anyone forgot, is a Shiite state, ruled autocratically by Ayatollahs, or religions leaders.
• Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states - Sunni centers of powers, interested in reducing the influence of Iran in the area, these countries are populated by some of the same tribes that are being oppressed and massacred in Syria. They support the resistance to Assad with money, weapons, training and political support.
• Turkey - another Sunni state vying for regional leadership with Iran. A former ally of Syria, it severed relations after it became clear that Assad's repression and killing of civilian are a dead end. Turkey hosts Syrian refugees, offers political support, military training, and facilitates weapons flow to the rebels, while also providing them with sanctuary. Turkey is interested in political influence in the area, but also cooperates with the US and EU, both as member of NATO and because of its affinity to Europe.
• The US and EU - partly for humanitarian reasons, partly to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions and its spreading and corrosive influence in the area, this bloc provides political support and logistic coordination to the rebels. Their main concern is the fact that nobody knows the real positions and intent of the rebels.
• Russia and China - support Assad for various reasons unrelated to the conflict. Syria provides Russia with its only Mediterranean port, relies on Russian weapon systems which are a lucrative trade, and has been trained by the Russian military for many years. Some of the Russian actions are meant to embarrass the west and maintain Russian influence in the area. 
• Israel - Israel is hesitant to commit to either side. For one, they are not sure whether Assad or the oppositions is the preferred cross-border neighbor. Assad is a known entity, and has maintained border stability for over 40 years, at the same time arming and training Hezbollah. On the other hand, severing Iran's access to Lebanon will lead to the likely collapse of armed groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. An explicit Israeli  involvement in support of the rebels will backfire on both the rebels and Israel, so its actions are likely to be kept secret.
• Al Qaeda - Iraqi Sunnis which escaped Iraq during the violent years after the US invasion live all over Syria. This allows Iraqi militants a relatively easy access to the country. Al Qaeda and it affiliates benefit from the conflict in a number of ways - improved favorability in the Arab world for supporting a popular cause, increased fund-raising, and legitimacy as part of the Sunni paramilitary infrastructure.

What to Expect

• Continuing conflict - Assad has no place to go at the moment, so his only option is to repress the majority of the population through army-led and Alawite militia massacres. On the other hand, killing civilians will not quell the uprising, and he can only kill so many of them - not enough to win.
• With time, defections and loss of personnel will wear down the regime, while rebels will get stronger as their training takes effect and as more of the population begins to support them. In other words, time is not in Assad favor.
• Russia and China will suffer political damage from their support of a murderous, oppressive regime, and business losses through the influence of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Sooner or later, they will support a solution that will ease Assad out.

Interesting Points

• The rebels seem disciplined, suggesting an evolving political and organizational skills and central control. They focus their actions on fighting the Syrian military and are not engaging in the much easier massacre of the Alawite sect and wealthy merchants. Or at least this is how it seems from the outside.
• The trend seems to show improvement in the rebels' skills, due to training and organizational support, funding and probably military support by external sources.
• So far, the West is carefully controlling their support. They provide small arms and antitank missiles. Their aversion to providing anti-aircraft missiles is probably due to their fear of arming Al Qaeda and other extremist organizations. This allows the Syrian army to use helicopter gunships to attack civilians and rebels alike. When the anti-aircraft capability show up, it would be interesting to note whether they are in the hand of the rebels, or used through special forces from the Gulf, EU, US or Israel.
• At some point, the minority Alawites, Christians and business elite might come to the conclusion that getting rid of Assad is in their interest. When this happens, it will signal the end. The only way Assad can prevent this from happening is a military victory that will marginalize the rebels, and soon. So it would not be surprising to see a final major effort and an all out attack by regime forces. However, their chances of success are limited.

Conclusion

More bloodshed, more pain, and slow slog towards regime change, which at this point is inevitable, are going to play out in the coming months and years.

Henry Gee about writing

It is only fitting that a blog used to practice writing should start with an entry about the process of writing, so here it is.

The inspiration for this blog came from a number of sources, the first of which was an article by Henry Gee in the Guardian, entitled “In Your Own Write: The ten rules for excellent writing”. Mr. Gee is a blogger, writer and senior editor at the science weekly Nature. The article, which was part of the public relations campaign for the Welcome Trust/Guardian/Observer science writing competition, was published a little over a year ago, and is worth reading.

Topping the list is "Rule 1: Write Every Day."

"That's why my first rule for writers is that, as an aspiring writer, you should write every day. Talent of any kind, whether it's playing football or the piano, improves with practice, and writing is no exception. It doesn't matter what it is, or how short ... It can be a status update on your favourite social network; a stanza on how miserable it is to wait in the rain ... (for the bus); a shopping list; a diary entry. Anything. This is why having a blog is good. You can write short items about anything, and, if you are going to do it properly, you will update it regularly. There is no pithier testament to unwillingness to write than an untended blog."

Here is a similar quote, from Dr. Ben Goldacre's email auto-response:

"If you want to get into writing, the only advice I can offer is “write!”, on a blog, in a local mag, a student paper, anywhere and everywhere that will have you, practice, feedback, and repeat." 

This is sound advice, but only part of the story. In my opinion, to be a good writer, start with a lot of reading.  Find a writer or an area that you enjoy and give it a go. To improve your writing, imitate the style and technique of your favorite writers. Your personal style will come through soon enough.

Reading is a lot less demanding than writing. It can be done piecemeal, and is much more fun than putting a daily quota of 1000 words (or 100, for that matter) to print. Reading has many benefits - it elevates comprehension, raises general intelligence, contributes to knowledge and language skills, is enlightening and occasionally inspiring. Reading broadens the mind, and widens the horizon. Its effects linger whether you become a writer or not.

If you find reading boring and tedious, you are probably not destined to be a writer, so spare yourself a lot of agony by finding a hobby you enjoy better. if you do find it rewarding, reading would lead you to things you can be passionate about, and write about with pleasure.

So my First Rule is "read a lot, regularly" - web pages, news, essays, zines, electronic and print books, anything and everything you can find (for free).

Yet while reading is a necessary part of writing, it is not on its own sufficient. Reading refines your grammar and enriches your vocabulary - which you will give you a good start. But practice - lots of it - is the secret to writing. And if regular writing does not make you a better writer, it will at least make you a more proficient one.

If you visit this blog often, you'll be able to see if it gets better with time and practice - assuming it does not become my "pithy testament to unwillingness to write".

Why this blog?

As we all know, most blogs are read by their writer, friends, family, and nobody else. And we should all be grateful for that, as most blogs are not worth reading - or for that matter writing. 

So, you, the fictitious, hypothetical reader of this blog, must wonder why either one of us bother. Or you would, had you existed. 

The simple answer is that this blog is an exercise in writing. According to a number of reliable sources, writing is a craft which improves with practice. An aspiring writer should write a daily allotment of 500-1000 words. While I can hardly describe myself as an aspiring writer (expiring or perspiring are more apt), I responded to the challenge by attempting to write in this blog on a regular basis. As you can see from the name of the blog, I have little illusions about my readership. I do this for myself, and will see, in a year, if indeed my writing is any better.

If you have stumbled upon this blog through a search or other accident, you are welcome to stick around and invited to return and decide for yourself if the practice helps.

Cheers.