Endgame in Syria?

It is hard, when reading news items about Syria, to judge what is truth and what is psy-ops. However, it would seem that we are now at the endgame phase. And once again, it seems that Obama's secretive 'lead from behind' is the driving force.

In the last few days we have seen the following news in Western media:

1. Firefights in Damascus, including bombings of TV station(s), assassination of a Hamas operative (probably NOT by Israel, as the guy is too low-level).

2. Continued killing of civilians by Government troops, but with casualty rates of the regime's forces on the same order of magnitude as the civilians. In other words, rebels are appearing to be on equal footing with the Syrian army.

3. Money and weapons arriving to Turkey from Gulf States, making its way to the border, and being distributed to the rebels by US operatives. The weapons include anti-tank and anti-personnel carrier individual weapons (RPG's and such), as well as light arms. The US presence is meant to prevent Jihadi types from obtaining it. The weapons appear to be relatively low-tech, and would not be a threat to civil aviation. They are also readily available in many combat zones, such as Pakistan, Africa, etc.

4. Syria moving tanks to the north. Turkey moving anti-aircraft equipment and tanks to the south. Seems to me that Turkey is planning to prevent the Syrian air force from bombing rebels on either side of the border.

5. High level defections - though still only a few.

6. Large swaths of land lost to rebels.

7. Announcements of free passage to Assad, etc.

So I see the US and Gulf States are moving in to ease Assad out. Militarily they are neutralizing his advantages with armaments, and in the meantime, they are trying to get him to move out voluntarily and have an orderly process of regime change. The goal is to make sure Al Qaeda and similar groups do not get advanced weapons, and also to prevent Syria's disintegration, a civil war, and a regional spillover.


If it works, which to me is pretty darn certain, it will deliver a serious blow to Iran and its regional ambitions. I give Assad 2-3 months, perhaps longer to enable an orderly transition. Let's wait and see.